Same again, but more so, in Northern Ireland

An election where no party’s total differed by more than two seats from last time. The DUP and Sinn Féin consolidated further their leads against the UUP and the SDLP respectively. And elections are very much still in these terms, as the table below shows. It shows too that the movement between communities in seat totals is far less sharp than if seen through the first past the post Westminster elections. MLAs are required to designate as Unionist, Nationalist or Other on the Assembly’s register, and votes require a support by qualified majority of both Unionists and Nationalists. This does create a systematic bias against Others, which is perhaps balanced by the Minister for Justice being decided by a full vote on a cross-community basis of the Assembly, rather than through d’Hondt, in effect a guaranteed Minister for the Alliance Party. Even without different rules, however, I’d still expect voting to be along community lines at this stage.

Year	Unionist	Nationalist	Other
1998	58 28 UUP 20 DUP 5 UKUP 2 PUP 3 Ind	42 24 SDLP 18 SF	8 6 Alliance 2 NIWC
2003	59 30 DUP 27 UUP 1 PUP 1 UKUP	42 24 SF 18 SDLP	7 6 Alliance 1 Ind
2007	55 36 DUP 18 UUP 1 PUP	44 28 SF 16 SDLP	9 7 Alliance 1 Green 1 Ind
2011	56 38 DUP 16 UUP 1 TUV 1 Ind	43 29 SF 14 SDLP	9 8 Alliance 1 Green

There really is no better analyst on Northern Ireland elections than Nicholas Whyte, son of historian John Whyte, so check out his blog and site. Slugger O’Toole is good too. But rather than just present a neat table, I might as well add a few thoughts of my own.

Why Others annoys me

On the BBC’s results page, they list a summary of the result, which has a figure of 19 Others. This includes all Northern Ireland parties, despite the fact that they give figures for the Scottish Nationalist Party, with less seats than the DUP, and Plaid Cyrmu, with less seats than Sinn Féin and as many as the SDLP. This is a reminder of how little Britain really cares about Northern Ireland, but as parties represented in Westminster, they really should be listed. They won’t act as a unit, and particularly after an election with no clear result, it would informative for them to be considered separately, to consider traditional allegiances with the main British parties. The SDLP, for example, could be trusted to support the Labour Party in most circumstances, as could Sylvia Hermon, who voted more consistently with the government than some Labour backbenchers. The Alliance have had institutional links with the Liberal Democrats so it should fairly much be taken for granted that Naomi Long will support whichever prime minister Nick Clegg decides to support. Sinn Féin’s abstention changes the number required for a majority in the Commons, as the total number taking their seats would be 645 rather than 650. And that would leave anyone looking at the figures able to quickly see the DUP’s eight seats and wonder how they’d act.

And it’s not just about Northern Ireland. Grouping small parties as Others masks at first glance the breakthrough of small parties, such as the Green Party at this election. I wouldn’t really mind either if they listed the change for Respect, down from one to no seats, so we could all have the pleasure of being reminded of George Galloway’s defeat, one of the small comforts of this election.

Changing state of Northern Ireland MPs

There have been significant and notable changes in Northern Ireland at all recent elections. Here is a quick glance summary of the 18 Northern Ireland constituencies since 1992. Since then, only 3 constituencies have been represented continuously by the same party, Foyle and Down South by the SDLP and Antrim North by the DUP.

Constituency	1992	1997	2001	2005	2010
Antrim East	Beggs	Beggs	Beggs	Wilson	Wilson
Antrim North	Paisley	Paisley	Paisley	Paisley	Paisley, Jr
Antrim South	Fosythe	Forsythe	Burnside	McCrea	McCrea
Belfast East	Robinson	Robinson	Robinson	Robinson	Long
Belfast North	Walker	Walker	Dodds	Dodds	Dodds
Belfast South	Smyth	Smyth	Smyth	McDonnell	McDonnell
Belfast West	Hendron	Adams	Adams	Adams	Adams
Down North	Kilfedder	McCartney	Hermon	Hermon	Hermon
Down South	McGrady	McGrady	McGrady	McGrady	Ritchie
Fermanagh–South Tyrone	Maginnis	Maginnis	Gildernew	Gildernew	Gildernew
Foyle	Hume	Hume	Hume	Durkan	Durkan
Lagan Valley	Molyneaux	Donaldson	Donaldson	Donaldson	Donaldson
Londonderry East	Ross	Ross	Campbell	Campbell	Campbell
Newry–Armagh	Mallon	Mallon	Mallon	Murphy	Murphy
Strangford	Taylor	Taylor	Robinson	Robinson	Shannon
Tyrone West		Thompson	Doherty	Doherty	Doherty
Ulster Mid	McCrea	McGuinness	McGuinness	McGuinness	McGuinness
Upper Bann	Trimble	Trimble	Trimble	Simpson	Simpson
Total (Party)	UUP: 9 SDLP: 4 DUP: 3 UPUP: 1	UUP: 10 SDLP: 3 SF: 2 DUP: 2 UKUP: 1	UUP: 6 DUP: 5 SF: 4  SDLP: 3	DUP: 9 SF: 5 SDLP: 3 UUP: 1	DUP: 8 SF:5 SDLP: 3 AP: 1 Ind:1
Community Breakdown	Unionist: 13 Nationalist: 4	Unionist: 13 Nationalist: 5	Unionist: 11 Nationalist: 7	Unionist: 10 Nationalist: 8	Unionist: 9 Nationalist: 8 Other: 1

(DUP in Orange, UUP in Blue, SF in Dark Green, SDLP in Light Green, small Unionist parties in Pale Orange, Alliance in Yellow; Source: ElectionsIreland.org)

The 2010 election saw a major upset with the defeat of the DUP leader Peter Robinson in the seat he has held in East Belfast since 1979, losing to the Alliance Party’s Naomi Long. This was the first time an Alliance Party candidate won a seat in a Westminster election, Stratton Mills having defected from the Ulster Unionists in 1974.

It was also the first election in which the Ulster Unionist Party failed to win a seat. They have existed since 1886, when the Conservatives first contested elections on an explicitly Unionist platform, in opposition to Gladstone’s Home Rule Bill. They organized as the Ulster Unionist Council in 1905. From 1974, they no longer took the Conservative whip in Westminster, and they broke all remaining ties in 1885. In 2008, the UUP agreed an electoral alliance with the Conservatives, which ultimately led to the loss of their only MP, Sylvia Hermon, who would not accept the Tory whip.

Text-only version:

Or not

Great news from East Belfast, where the Alliance Party’s Naomi Long has taken out First Minister and DUP leader Peter Robinson. Great to see an Alliance Party MP elected after 40 years, and 36 years after Stratton Mills, who had left after being elected from the Ulster Unionist Party, retired in 1974.

The Alliance are avowedly non-sectarian, though it has been difficult for them at times for them to maintain their identity. I look forward to seeing how they can shape themselves now on the Westminster stage. It is also a gain for the Liberal Democrats, with whom the Alliance are aligned.

Peter Robinson won his seat here in 1979, in a close three-way contest against the Ulster Unionist Party’s William Craig and the Alliance Party’s Oliver Napier, with less than a thousand votes separating the three candidates, and till tonight, it was considered a solidly safe seat for the DUP. As a hung parliament is likely, and the DUP will need someone to be able negotiate any arrangements, his leadership may well be on the line quite soon.

Well, ding dong, the witch is dead.